Namaste, Howdy!

Post 2014, after Bhartiya Janata Party took center-stage in India, the India-United States relations saw a few surprising turns. One of those was the then US President Barack Obama’s invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It is important here to note that PM Modi had been barred from entering the country over U.S. concerns about the 2002 massacre of Muslims in the state of Gujarat, which occurred when Modi was the state’s chief minister. Until the US Presidential elections in 2016 which led to Donald Trump being elected as the 58th President of America, the Indo-American relations under PM Modi and Obama saw some milestones. On his first visit as the Prime Minister of India, Modi met a huge crowd at New York’s Madison Square Garden. It was during this visit that PM Modi and President Obama reach agreement on a memorandum of understanding between the Export-Import Bank and an Indian energy agency, which provided up to $1 billion to help India develop low-carbon energy alternatives and aid U.S. renewable energy exports to India. During Obama’s second visit to India in 2015, Obama and Prime Minister Modi announced a breakthrough on nuclear-related issues that could help implement the U.S.-India civil nuclear deal. Six months later, U.S. Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter and India’s defence minister, Manohar Parrikar, signed documents to renew the ten-year U.S.-India Defence Framework Agreement. In 2016, the United States and India signed an agreement on deeper military cooperation after nearly a decade of negotiations.

The theatrics of the Indo-American relations reached its peak after Trump assumed office at the White House. Trump administration came to power at a time when Indian immigrants in US were being targeted by racist attacks and slurs. One of the key points of the Republican president’s election campaign was surrounding immigration to the country and H-1B visas. America witnesses a significant amount of immigration from India, most of which comprises the IT work force in America. In their first meeting in 2017, Trump had raised sharp disagreements with India over trade, climate change, and H-1B visas. However, just like his immediate predecessor, Trump too paved way for stronger defence relations with India and in 2018, during the 2+2 dialogue, Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj and Minister of Defence Nirmala Sitharaman welcomed Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo and Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis to India and signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA). However, in the same year, America threatened sanctions against India after the Indian government’s agreement with Russia to buy four S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile defence system, and over the government’s decision to buy oil from Iran.

2019 turned a new page in the Indo- American relations. India and America have enjoyed a trade relationship since the 1990s. The United States is one of India's largest direct investors. From 1991 to 2004, the stock of FDI inflow has increased from US$11 million to $344.4 million, and totalling $4.13 billion. The US is India's second largest trading partner, and India is its 9th largest trading partner. In 2017, the US exported $25.7 billion worth of goods to India, and imported $48.6 billion worth of Indian goods. The Trump administration terminated India’s preferential trade status that came under the Generalised System of Preference (GSP). India was the largest beneficiary of the programme in 2017 with USD 5.7 billion in imports to the US given duty-free status. The Trump administration argued that the Modi administration had failed to assure America that it will provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets in numerous sectors. Despite all the threats of sanction and the termination of the trade status, the leaders of both the countries maintained an image of friendship in the media and diplomatic circles. Both Trump and Modi are inherently right-wing politicians, governing over countries that have a long-sustained prejudice against Muslims. One can wonder if this shared animosity is what binds their camaraderie. Both rose to power with their vision of making their countries great again, and fanned tensions along religious, economic and social fault lines on the way.

In September 2019, post his re-election and beginning his second term as the Prime Minister of India, Modi visited the United States with the theatrics at full display. At an event titled “Howdy Modi”, he was greeted by tens of thousands of Indian-Americans at the NRG Stadium in Houston, gathered to celebrate his recent win. Surprisingly bereft of his MAGA crowd, Trump stuck to showering praises on his Indian counterpart, specially his re-election. Modi too drew applause on his admiration towards Trump, and went on to deliver his famous campaign slogan, albeit with a twist- “Abki baar Trump Sarkar”. This mega rally paved a way for Trump to drum up support from the Indian-American community before the American presidential elections in November 2020. The timing of this mega rally came at a time when Modi was in dire need of approval from foreign governments over his administration’s decision to revoke Article 370 in August that ended Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. Jammu and Kashmir have been in lockdown since the decision was implemented and made public. It is also important to note here that Modi has been quite a globe-trotting leader, trying to bring in big players to the Indian shore and attract foreign investment to pull up India’s downward spiralling economy. This visit also marked the beginning of the Tiger Triumph military exercises between India and United States.

In February 2020, despite the ongoing protests against Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in India, President Trump flew down to India for a two-day visit. Cheekily titled “Namaste Trump”, as a homage to Modi’s own “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston, Trump was greeted by a crowd in the 110,000 seat Motera stadium in Gujarat, Modi’s home base. In the background, India however continued to burn as it saw one of its worst communal riots in Delhi that left many dead and injured, commercial and residentials establishments charred. Trump did not publicly mention the violence or take a firm stance on the law, which critics say discriminates against Muslims. Controversies surrounded this event before it even began as walls were erected along the route of Trump’s convoy to hide the slums near it. The two leaders announced plans to work together on counter-narcotics and mental health. India agreed to purchase $3 billion in U.S. military equipment, and U.S.-based oil company ExxonMobil announces a deal with state-owned Indian Oil Corporation. Despite years of negotiations aimed at resolving trade issues, officials did not reach an agreement, with divisions remaining over agricultural products, tariffs, and other areas.

Trump’s visit to India came at a time when Modi’s global optics needed revamping, with Indian politics mired in controversies and global outrage surrounding the revoking of Article 370, anti CAA protests. Whether these visits by both leaders had any effect on the shrinking apparatus of the Indo-American relations or were they simply smoke and mirrors is a question left unanswered. While both Trump and Modi belong to the same political strata, and share personality traits when it comes to politics, the tariffs and counter tariffs imposed by America on India did rattle the diplomatic relations between these countries quite a bit. The bilateral trade deal that was to be signed got put off, with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announcing it would be picked up in later in the year in November after the U.S. elections. Except defense agreements, both leaders failed to reach an understanding surrounding the trade deal.
In the background of Trump’s visit to India, the threat of Covid-19 loomed large. At the time of his visit, United States had 18 confirmed cases, and India had three confirmed cases. Back home, President Trump has been accused by the media, opposition and public alike over his handling of the now full-blown pandemic. On the diplomatic front, Trump appeared to have wringed India’s hand to export hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug that seems to have shown some promise in treating coronavirus. Trump hinted at retaliation if India did not export the drug.
Although Trump and Modi are not the entirety of the India-United States relations, but the dynamics seems to have reached a stale state under both their leadership. It remains to be seen what happens next in this equation, in a post Covid-19 world and after the American Presidential elections in November 2020.